Then came a smidgen of political pressure from an obscure lobby organization representing France’s 34,000 tobacco vendors, lamenting the threat to their “livelihood.” Raffarin waffled. The vendors have been promised a bigger cut of cigarette sales, plus 150 million euro in compensation for potential losses. As if that weren’t enough, they are being guaranteed a four-year moratorium from further cigarette-tax increases–the very thing that supposedly discourages smoking. A year and a half into Raffarin’s term, French voters have reached a sorry conclusion: their man simply isn’t a finisher. “Most people think that he can’t cope with events,” says Jean-Marc Le Lech, head of the influential Ipsos polling firm in Paris, summing up the rap on Raffarin. “They don’t believe that he is competent.”
What a change from a year ago. Then, his approval ratings stood at 63 percent. Today the figure is 33 percent. Raffarin now ranks as France’s second most unpopular politician, just a notch above the reviled right-wing extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen. His declining popularity and the anti-tobacco campaign spurred the satirical newspaper Le Canard Enchaine to run a large cigarette warning label on its cover last week saying: “Jean-Pierre Raffarin is a serious danger to your health and to that of those around you.”
When Raffarin became prime minister in June 2002, he was initially admired for his accessibility in a country where powerful officials often remain aloof. He had political advantages, as well. For the first time in five years, a single political force–his conservative Liberal Democracy Party, allied with President Jacques Chirac–controlled both the Elysee Palace, the prime minister’s office and Parliament. At last, it was imagined, the tough work of economic and social reform–widely agreed upon as needed–could begin.
But no. This May, Raffarin’s high-profile effort to raise the retirement age and reduce unemployment benefits brought hundreds of thousands of impassioned protesters into the streets. Initially the prime minister refused all dialogue. Indeed, he practically egged on the demonstrators, declaring that neither unionists nor the demonstrators could stop him. The tough talk didn’t stick, says Brice Teinturier, director of political studies for another French polling company, Sofres. When the protests dragged on through the summer, Raffarin backed off and watered down his proposed changes.
Then came the infamous August heat wave, with nearly 15,000 dead. Raffarin was quite literally nowhere to be seen as emergency rooms overflowed and the elderly were dying of dehydration in their homes. When he finally surfaced, late in the crisis after cutting short his vacation, it was to focus on the national lifestyle changes that had pushed old folks into hospitals and nursing homes (while their children go on holiday). He proposed that the French work an extra day each year by way of recompense. The extra earnings would go toward improving life for the elderly.
It was a creative solution, and one that initially won the backing of 80 percent of the country. The government further suggested that eliminating one of France’s 11 holidays would bring in 2.1 billion euro for the cause–a step that also showed decisiveness and imagination. Yet true to form, Raffarin managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. During the months in which the changes were being drawn up, details of the government’s failures at the peak of the crisis came out. Military hospitals had not been opened to alleviate intense overcrowding at state nursing homes and hospitals until it was too late. Popular opposition to the government’s plans also began to build. Francois Fillon, minister for Social Affairs, leaked that Pentecost would be nixed as a holiday. Unions immediately complained and were joined by church officials, who wondered why they hadn’t been consulted. Soon the date at which the plan would go into effect was pushed back to 2005, undermining its sense of urgency. With support now less than 50 percent, it’s questionable whether it will ever get off the ground. Raffarin’s fall in the polls has been “quite remarkable,” says Le Lech.
The prime minister cannot be blamed for everything, of course. France’s economy is stagnant; unemployment hovers around 10 percent. Gasoline prices have risen, irritating consumers; unemployment benefits are shrinking. But ironically, given that Raffarin is a former marketing man, his government has been woefully maladroit at communicating its programs and proposed solutions to the public. More important, it has been lamentably short of ideas on issues the French care most about, such as the struggling economy, rising joblessness and health care. Raffarin repeatedly asserts that things will get better–but not thanks to his policies. He pins his hopes on an American economic recovery spilling over to France in 2004. Unemployment will fall as large numbers of French reach retirement age, he adds. This would be a victory for his inspirational leadership?
Newspapers and magazines increasingly note his isolation, his failures and his lapses. They highlight bickering between Raffarin and high-profile ministers, often speculating on who might replace him. The weekly L’Express recently featured him in a long cover story, headlined IS IT THE END? Another survey reports that 54 percent of those polled think Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy has the “stature of a good prime minister,” while only 36 percent say the same about Raffarin. (Indeed, Sarkozy makes no secrets of his aspirations for higher office, including even the presidency.) Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin, who spends much of his time abroad, gets 26 percent.
Some suggest that Raffarin’s fall from grace is a natural progression for French prime ministers, who get blamed for day-to-day problems while the president stands above it all, intervening in domestic affairs only as a last resort. Still, Raffarin could last longer than the chattering class expects. Despite yet another poll indicating that 48 percent of French people want Raffarin out “now or in the coming months,” President Chirac is unlikely to jettison his woebegone prime minister just yet. The reason: further unpopular legislative measures must yet be introduced, among them health-care reform. Better that Raffarin take the heat than himself, his thinking no doubt goes. And if regional elections go badly in April, Chirac could recoup by blaming his prime minister–and let drop the ax.
